Egypt and Algeria : the same but different?

After the successful overthrow of Mubarak in Egypt there are now signs that Algeria is going to be the next Arab country to see mass demonstrations for democratic reform. Algeria like Egypt is a police state, riddled with corruption and governed under ong standing state of emergency laws. Today there are reports of a large anti-government protest in the capital Algeria.

Chanting "no to the police state" and "Bouteflika out" thousands of demonstrators were initially outnumbered by riot police and struggles broke out.

Pro-democracy demonstrators in Algeria can look to their colleagues in Egypt for lessons on how to conduct an inclusive non-violent revolution of course but the conditions in each country are perhaps not identical.

Unlike Egypt, Algeria has a recent history of extensive political violence and has in the past been on the brink of having a democratic system. In 1991 an Islamist group won the first round of democratic elections but the military stepped in and cancelled the next stage of the elections. The ensuing Islamist insurgency and Algerian civil war saw the death of around 160,000 people over the next decade.

In the context of such recent large scale and deadly internal conflict a generally restrained response from the regime is much less certain than it was in Egypt. The pro-democracy movement in Algeria will know that they have a huge hill to climb if they are to persuade the Algerian people to set aside their real fear of widespread political violence.

It will be interesting to see in the coming days if the pro-democracy movement in Algeria can create the sort of momentum that ultimately toppled the Mubarak regime.

The rebirth of Egypt

Truly amazing scenes of joyous celebration are still going on in Egypt following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak a few hours ago. The Egyptian people have every cause to celebrate the overthrow of a dictator through a revolution that they conducted with great dignity and unity. They were an inspiration to many people.

It is easy living in a western democracy to fail to understand what it must be like for people who have lived under the rule of dictators for generations. The fear of the secret police has evaporated now in Egypt as the people place their faith in a temporary army council which, it seems, will run the country on an interim basis.

Given the conduct of the army so far there is hope that the army will stay true to the clear expressed will of the people and that it will help guide the country to free elections and democracy.

The members of the regime may yet try more tricks though. There will be those in Egypt who feel their livelihoods or wealth threatened by the collapse of the regime and they will look for ways to retain influence. It may not be impossible for example that we will see characters like Suleiman backed by the former ruling NDP party re-emerge and contest elections. These natural right wingers may yet find a future accommodation with equally right wing conservative Muslim religious groups.  That seems an unlikely pairing in the short to medium term but not so unlikely in the longer term.

The future political balance of the country is coming under the control of the Egyptian people now - which is where it should be. Their choices will have consequences for relations within the Middle East and beyond. Whatever those effects are though other countries will happily now at least need to deal with Egypt in future as a fellow democratic state - a nation reborn in a January revolution.

Mubarak still in denial

Massive crowds which had gathered in Tahir Square in Cairo had been celebrating wildly in anticipation that Hosni Mubarak was about to announce that he was stepping down. The crowds this evening were among the largest that have yet been seen during 17 days of historic protest. All the signs seemed to be pointing to a resignation and the probability that the army would take a temporary role during the transition.

Instead, as the crowds listened in anticipation,. Mubarak simply confirmed his previous statement that he would not stand in the future elections. In a patronising speech in which he called the people his "children" he threw sops to the Egyptian people. He said he would transfer some powers to the vice president Suleiman and that he would support the amendment of some parts of the constitution.

There was no mention of the role of the newly announced army council however so it remains uncertain what role this body will now play in the crisis. One possibility is that the army is preparing a clamp down of course but it is also possible that what we are seeing are cracks emerging among the power blocks in the country.

It was easy to foresee what the reaction of the crowds of Egyptians would be. What had been a scene of festivities and celebration turned within minutes to a scene of unbelievable disappointment and anger.

This revolution has reached a very critical point. It is becoming abundantly clear that Mubarak will only go if he is abandoned by the army and if they play a role in removing him in support of the peoples demands.

The protesters again face critical decisions - how can they wind up the pressure further on the regime without giving the regime cause to instigate suppressive actions against them. It is at such points in revolutions that people in their anger may decide for example to try to storm the presidential palace or to take over the state media. These actions remain open to the protesters but there is the risk of course that this type of strategy may merely set off another train of  violence.

Mubarak proved one thing with his speech tonight though. There is no fool like an old fool.

Egypt Mubarak regime crumbles

The Egyptian revolution now appears to have achieved an unstoppable momentum with breaking news that Mubarak may be about to announce today that he is stepping down. This will be a momentous step forward for the pro-democracy revolution if it is true - but the devil will be in the details of any announcement.

In my previous I wondered if the protesters had the fortitude and staying power to outlast Mubark in the staring contest that appeared to be developing. The pro-democracy protesters in Egypt have never failed to inspire us and the Egyptian people though.

 Far from seeing the protests fade away in the face of superficial concessions by the regime it seems that the protests have if anything gained new momentum in recent days. The protesters have also shown some adaptability as they found new targets such as the parliament building. Other groups in Egyptian society are now coming out and making a stance in support of the protests. There are reports today of doctors and nurses joining the protests as well as strikes by various groups of transport and other workers. This is a peoples revolution which is increasingly drawing to itself all sectors of Egyptian society in a mighty roar for freedom.

The regime has given concession after concession in the face of this pro-democracy revolution but there had until now been little which concretely changed the fact that Egypt continues to be an undemocratic autocracy. Nevertheless, the fact that the regime has felt the need to be seen to make concessions is an indication that it has no real answer to this popular uprising.

Now it seems that the revolution may be about to wring real change out of the regime.

There remain grave dangers of course.  Today's shifts appear to have coincided with the emergence of a military council which now seems likely to emerge as the interim source of authority in the country. The people have placed great faith in their army and the hope must be that the army will not betray that trust but will help guide the country towards a functioning democracy. The risk is that what will emerge is an army led regime - a sort of generals council which continues to hold the country in an autocratic rule.

There are hopeful signs though with announcements seemingly coming from the army that the people should expect announcements that the demands of the people will be met.

For Egyptians believe in freedom and democracy these are momentous times but they must remain watchful and ensure that this revolution is not hijacked by interest groups intent on replacing one authoritarian regime with another. At this stage though one must remain hopeful of a good outcome for this revolution as far as the Egyptian people are concerned.

Others will remain unsettled and deeply disturbed by these events. A democratic Egypt which challenges the status quo over Gaza and the Palestinians will be a real challenge for Israel. If it has sense it will seize the opportunity and try to ride the wave of democratic change in the Arab world.

These events also pose major challenges for other dictatorships and authoritarian regimes. The Iranian regime which at first tried to co-opt this revolution as some sort of Islamist revolution is now clearly worried. Not long ago it faced its own popular freedom movement and events in Egypt seem likely to give support and legitimacyacy to pro-democracy activists in Iran. China too faced its own pro-democracy challenges which it brutally suppressed and it too has clearly been worried as it has tried to suppress the flow of news about the Egyptian revolt within China.

We live, as the saying goes, in interesting times. Interesting but wonderful times - for those that hope that people around the world can secure their rights to freedom and democracy.

Where now for the Egyptian revolution?

The ongoing struggle by the Egyptian people to assert their right to freedom has been a wonderful sight. Not only have the pro-democracy protesters taken on the might of the Egyptian state and its hired thugs but they have done so with a spirit of unity that has crossed religious and political differences.

Last week, after the heroic fight against Mubarak's violent thugs, it seemed that the peoples revolution might have gained an unstoppable momentum  that would lead to his swift departure. This outcome appeared more likely as the US government appeared to be further nuancing it's earlier stance and appeared to be signaling a desire to see Mubarak's swift departure.

As a new week dawned things started to look a little less certain however. This is the nature of revolutions - their course is only predictable with hindsight. The Mubarak regime dug in and adopted what at first sight appear to be contradictory actions. These actions however bought it some breathing space.

In the face of intense international criticism they called back their violent thugs and their crude attempt to create chaos and violent instability. At the same time they had unleashed a major assault on the media in an attempt to control the flow of news about the revolution. This was coupled with a mixture of soothing noises about change, suggestions that the revolution was narrowly supported and a mixture of threats and appeasement via the state controlled media. The regime was in effect trying to buy itself time and this strategy appears to have worked for now.

It is a strategy that also wrong footed the US. Towards the end of last week the US assessment was, no doubt, that events were spiralling and that the quick departure of Mubarak would lead to a less not a more volatile situation. As the regime has dug in though, the US stance of last week perhaps began to look to the US government like it might leave them on the wrong side of events. What if Mubarak and the regime managed to hang on in a situation where the US had apparently been calling for him to go? What then for their relationship with this regime? Such calculations have no doubt fuelled the slight softening of the stance of the US in recent days.

Whatever the position of the US though this revolution still belongs to the Egyptian people. Taking their protests at face value it seems clear that the position of all the groups involved - including the Muslim Brotherhood - is that they want to see a change to a democratic state - one in which there is freedom of association, freedom of the press, free speech and a freedom to take part on political activity.

The big question now for the protesters must be how best to achieve this overall aim. Is it possible that the slogan "Mubarak must go now" might actually compromise this larger and more significant aim?

I am beginning to conclude that it might. Mubarak is a stubborn and proud man and it looks unlikely that he will step down unless there is a sea change in the way the protests are being conducted. That could only mean entering a new period of revolutionary activity - trying to take over state institutions for example such as the State TV or occupying the Presidential palace or an all out strike. The problem with that strategy would be that this would play into the regimes hands. It seems unlikely the army would stand by and do nothing faced with events escalating in that way. This approach is an option for the protesters but if they were to choose that course then the end of last week was probably the flood tide for that too happen. They may not now have sufficient momentum to adopt that kind of strategy.

So what would I do in their place? I think at this stage their best course is not to call for Mubarak to actually go but rather to present a series of demands that in practice prevent the regime from conducting itself as a dictatorship during the period leading to free elections.

I think the protesters should begin to focus on changes to the way the system works which ensure that Egyptians can exercise free speech, free assembly and political activity from here on in.  If they can achieve significant interim changes then they can in effect make Mubarak and the regime irrelevant and incapable of stopping change.  Such demands would be legitimate and it would be very difficult for the regime to justify refusing such demands.

There is no doubt that Mubarak is going to leave power one way or another. The protesters arguably would now be better raising their sights and focusing on the bigger and longer game here. Mubarak is perhaps now a distraction.

The real issue is that Egyptians need their freedoms guaranteed and protected by the state and it is changes in this area that should be the priority.  This may not have the symbolic value that Mubarak's departure would have but these types of changes will in the long run do much more to ensure that the Egyptian people achieve their aim of a free democracy.

The difficulty with this strategy of course is that it is much easier to rally people around simple slogans such as "Mubark must go now" than it is around more complex messages. Therein lies the condundrum for this revolution. A simple slogan more easily mobilises the people but may well not achieve the real aims of the revolution.

Update: The Egyptian regime appears to have offered some further concessions and "sweeteners" - Some reports suggest that Suleiman has said that there will be no attempt to track down and persecute the pro-democracy protestors ( get it in writing guys !). The regime is also trying bribery by announcing significant wage rises for public sector workers.  On the other side the protestors are maintaining more mementum than some had feared might be the case this week - another very large rally underway in Tahir square today. Can they keep it up and outlast the regime?